GIRO’23 Final Stage 21 Breakdown: How Cav Showed His Class

Key Takeaways: Giro d’Italia Stage 21: Spencer Martin breaks down how the final stage of the 2023 Giro d’Italia was won by retiring ‘Sprint King’ Mark Cavendish in his last Giro d’Italia stage. And what does it tell us about July’s Tour de France?

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The final sprint of his final Giro d’Italia – Mark Cavendish

Today’s post will focus just on the final stage, with a full GC breakdown coming later this week. The end to yet another grand tour is both a welcome and melancholy event, but I’m already excited and looking forward to what I expect to be a good run of stage races in June, and the Tour de France in July, which will feature an incredibly exciting GC showdown.

Congratulations all round for Cav

Mark Cavendish powered clear of the field inside the final few hundred meters to take his 54th career grand tour stage win in the shadow of the Colosseum on a sunbaked afternoon in Rome. The win, which was made possible due to expert positioning and a bit of leadout help in a key moment from his old friend Geraint Thomas, signaled that despite being 38 years old and without a win so far in 2023, Cavendish can still ride like a top-tier sprinter when things go his way and that he has a very real chance of challenging for the all-time Tour de France stage win record in July.

The final Giro’23 podium

Primož Roglič, with just a slim 14-second margin over Geraint Thomas in the GC, didn’t face any challenges from his GC rivals on the stage, which looked more like a procession through Rome than a full-on day of racing. However, Roglič appeared not to take any chances and rolled over the line fairly close to the front after his Jumbo-Visma teammates had done significant work to keep him well-positioned and ahead of any splits in the bunch. The high stress of the finish meant that he was only able to celebrate the most dramatic of his four career grand tour overall victories after crossing the finish line.

Stage Top Three
1) Mark Cavendish +0
2) Alex Kirsch +0
3) Filippo Fiorelli +0

Another Grand Tour win for Primoz Roglič

Final GC Top Ten:
1) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +0
2) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +14
3) João Almeida (UAE) +1’15
4) Damiano Caruso (Bahrain) +4’40
5) Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) +5’43
6) Thymen Arensman (Ineos) +6’05
7) Eddie Dunbar (Jayco) +7’30
8) Andreas Leknessund (DSM) +7’31
9) Lennard Kämna (Bora) +7’46
10) Laurens De Plus (Ineos) +9’08

Thibaut Pinot in his last Giro – KOM

KOM Jersey
1) Thibaut Pinot – 237pts
2) Derek Gee – 200pts
3) Ben Healy – 164pts

There is a big future for Jonathan Milan

Points Jersey
1) Jonathan Milan – 217pts
2) Derek Gee – 164pts
3) Michael Matthews – 101pts

Cavendish was invisible until the final meters

Stage 21 Race Notebook

5.1km: Ineos is at the front controlling the peloton with race-leader Primož Roglič tucked close by with two Jumbo-Visma teammates. It is interesting Ineos, not Jumbo, or sprinters’ teams, are controlling the race here. I would guess this means they are trying to keep Thomas towards the front to protect their 2nd place overall, and take advantage of any splits in the group that may catch out Roglič.

4.9km: Derek Gee attacks while an Eolo rider follows. This is a dangerous move since the sprinters’ teams don’t have the energy to control them, but, instead of joining in an effort to put Roglič, who is down to a single Jumbo teammate, under pressure, Ineos keeps their pace high on the front.

4km: On a slight hill that would be perfect for an attack, Ineos continues to pull and eventually brings the escapees back.

2.2km: Mark Cavendish is towards the front with a single Astana teammate while Movistar takes over on the front for Fernando Gaviria. Cavendish doesn’t have the team horsepower to remain here, but his old teammate and friend, Geraint Thomas, moves up and tells Cavendish to get on his wheel.

1.5km: Thomas proceeds to uncork a powerful leadout for Cavendish, who is slotted comfortably in 5th wheel. This is key since it keeps Cavendish towards the front in the part of the sprint where he has been struggling throughout this Giro.

1km: However, after Thomas peels off, which causes the pace to decrease slightly and allows others to move up, Cavendish is shuffled backward in the group, where he slots in next to Jonathan Milan.

900m: This positioning next to Milan proves key when the stage favorite makes a massive acceleration to move up in the field, which allows Cavendish to latch onto his wheel and get a free ride back into position.

700m: In the course of a few hundred meters, Cavendish has ridden the Milan train into 5th wheel and is perfectly positioned for the sprint.

300m: Cavendish’s luck continues when Fernando Gaviria launches his patented absurdly early sprint. Cavendish doesn’t hesitate and latches onto the wheel, which gives him the perfect leadout. Oddly, instead of following, Milan goes to the other side of the road.

150m: Cavendish follows Gaviria until he feels the pace coming off and then launches a sprint when he gets within the magic 10-second window (meaning he only has to sprint all-out for 10 seconds). Milan completely falls apart and is forced to sit up.

Finish: Once Cavendish goes, he is clearly stronger than the others and powers over the line with a demonstrative margin. Behind, Pascal Ackermann drifts over until he crashes into the barriers, which causes a mini-pile up. Thomas is in the 1st group, and could, in theory, be counted ahead of Roglič if a gap were to occur behind due to normal racing. But, this crash, which neutralizes the time gaps, all but secures overall victory for Roglič.

Key Takeaways

1) Mark Cavendish’s positioning struggles were cured by the high level of fatigue in the peloton

• The 38-year-old sprinting legend gets his first victory of 2023 and signals that his quest for the Tour de France stage win record (he needs one more stage win to take the all-time record) isn’t yet over.
  • Outside of his win, which shows an impressive mental fortitude since crashes, illness, and a brutal route, made his journey to Rome difficult, the dominant way in which he won the stage was the biggest indicator that Cavendish is still an incredibly strong rider.
    • And, with the win giving Cavendish his 54th career grand tour stage win spread over 15 seasons, there can no longer be any question of whether he is the best sprinter of all time.
• The big difference between this sprint and the ones that came before it is that the fatigue levels were higher and the sprinters’ teams were even more fatigued.
  • This dynamic really helped Cavendish, who has been struggling with positioning all season long since he doesn’t have a team to help him and he lacks the raw power of a rider like Wout van Aert to move himself up in the group.
  • Also, the fact that Cavendish looked so strong, while Milan, who dominated the early sprints, faded so early today, likely tells us that as he has gotten older and lost top-end speed, he has actually gained endurance-based power.
    • This could come in handy on the final stage of the Tour de France, where the high-powered leadouts are often missing key players and the superstar sprinters have lost a step or two due to the grind of the three-week race.
• Another thing that played into Cavendish’s hand was that the entire peloton seemed to be on a mission to deliver him to victory.
  • Geraint Thomas’ friendly pull kept him at the front during a critical time, while Jonathan Milan’s move to the front positioned him perfectly for the sprint, and Fernando Gaviria’s leadout sealed the win.
    • Outside of Thomas, these moves certainly weren’t intentional and were a massive stroke of luck, but, sometimes, that is all you need at the end of a bike race.

The early jump from Gaviria doesn’t seem to work any more

2) Fernando Gaviria’s early-sprint issues keep costing him and will be extremely hard to correct

• The Colombian, who was once a top-tier grand tour stage winner, but who is now on a four-year grand tour stage winless streak, looked the best he had looked so far at this Giro. But, his terrible habit of opening up the sprint from far too from the finish line once again made him uncompetitive in the sprint.
  • While one might imagine this habit is coachable and that a Movistar video coordinator could simply walk him through his mistakes and tell him to wait to sprint until he sees 100ms instead of 300ms on the roadside signs, but, oftentimes a rider opening up from too far from the finish line is due to a form of self-sabotage (often due to a lack of confidence) and is much more difficult to remedy.

No ‘real’ GC racing in the last stage

3) Any idea of ‘real’ GC racing happening on a final grand tour stage should officially be considered dead after today

• It likely wouldn’t have been popular, but with the margin between Primož Roglič and Geraint Thomas so tight, there was a not insignificant chance for Thomas to pull back enough time on Roglič to take overall victory.
  • Had he joined the Gee attack, instead of reeling it in, it would have been difficult for the group behind to nail them back, especially with the slight hill with 4km to go and the tricky finale.
  • It might have been tough to get a full 14-second gap, but with time bonuses on offer, he might have only needed a gap of four seconds to complete the upset.
• However, the fact that he didn’t attempt it, even with the gap between 1st and 2nd at a historically tight margin, likely tells us that we are unlikely to see GC riders duking it out on the final stage anytime soon.
  • The tight time gap and the fact that there aren’t traditional norms around the final stage of the Giro made this the perfect storm for a last-day GC overturn. If we didn’t see it today, we won’t see it for a long, long time.
  • While he got to leadout an old friend for a stage win, part of his logic for positioning towards the front in the sprint was that since gaps are calculated from the time of the stage winner to the front wheel of the first rider who is gapped, if Roglič was shuffled too far back and a small gap occurred in the field, the two riders could have been awarded on separate times, which could have given him a dramatic overall victory.

Will the Cavendish fairy tale end in Paris?

 

# Stay PEZ for Spencer Martin’s Final Giro breakdown and takeaways coming soon. #

 

# Spencer Martin is the author of the cycling-analysis newsletter Beyond the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of each race and answers big picture questions surrounding team and rider performance. Sign up now to get full access to all the available content and race breakdowns. #